NFL QB EPA rankings: Brock Purdy is the new leader, Daniel and Mac Jones bring up the rear

Publish date: 2024-05-04

There’s a new 2023 NFL quarterback king (at least metrically speaking) heading into Week 6.

Meanwhile, it’s nearly impossible not to keep up with the Joneses, both Daniel and Mac. And can anyone catch for the Baltimore Ravens? Anyone?

Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like Expected Points Added per dropback, via TruMedia, to provide a number-based outlook on the state of the position.

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I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 6.

Nos. 1-8

playerEPA/DB ovrEPA/DB Wk 5PsrRt ovrpsrrt wk 5

0.42 (1)

0.66 (1)

123.1 (1)

144.4 (1)

0.31 (2)

-0.05 (20)

111.9 (2)

100.4 (12)

0.27 (3)

0.33 (5)

105.6 (5)

102.0 (11)

0.20 (4)

0.37 (2)

96.0 (11)

109.9 (7)

0.19 (5)

BYE

106.3 (3)

BYE

0.14 (6)

BYE

101.5 (8)

BYE

0.12 (7)

0.21 (8)

104.4 (6)

132.4 (2)

0.11 (8)

0.05 (14)

98.4 (9)

88.9 (16)

All the detractors are right about Brock Purdy. Do you see how far Purdy slipped in EPA per dropback from Week 4 to Week 5? Purdy only produced a sensational 0.66 EPA rate in the 49ers’ demolition of the Dallas Cowboys. This was a 0.45 drop from Purdy’s Week 4 outing against the Arizona Cardinals in which Purdy yielded the best single-game EPA rate (1.01) and completion percentage (95.2 percent) of any quarterback in the last four seasons.

Congrats, naysayers! You got your wish from Purdy in Week 5!

Back in reality land, there should be no downplaying Purdy’s success. Since 2000, Purdy possesses the highest passer rating of any quarterback over the first 10 regular-season starts of his career. Purdy’s EPA-per-dropback rate through 10 regular-season starts ranks second only to Patrick Mahomes.

It’s taken those types of performances from Purdy to knock Tua Tagovailoa from the top perch of the EPA and passer-rating leaderboards. Obviously, Tua still has the Miami Dolphins offense rolling. But … it’s the second consecutive week in which Tagovailoa produced a negative EPA-per-dropback rate coming off a -0.11 showing in the Week 4 loss to the Buffalo Bills.

Josh Allen’s monster fourth quarter (0.90 EPA compared to -0.01 in quarters 1-3) launched his Week 5 EPA rate higher than what you might’ve expected given the Bills fell to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Still, Allen has turned his play around since a rough Week 1 loss to the New York Jets. It’s the fourth straight week in which Allen tallied a 0.26 EPA rate or better.

Mahomes produced his second-highest EPA rate and passer rating of the season in the Week 5 win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback has only had one negative EPA rate in the past two seasons and it came in the opening-night loss to the Detroit Lions this season (-0.05).

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Speaking of Detroit, Jared Goff had little issue against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, throwing three touchdowns and no interceptions. And his numbers could have been even better if not for four dropped passes. Regardless, Goff amassed his third-highest passer rating since joining the Lions in 2021.

Quite an impressive milestone for the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud: Via FOX, Stroud’s 186 pass attempts with no interceptions are the most attempts to open a career without a pick in league history. Stroud has four consecutive weeks with a positive EPA rate, but ended his 100.0-plus passer-rating streak at three games with his 88.9 clip in Week 5.

Nos. 9-16

playerEPA/DB ovrEPA/DB Wk 5PsrRt ovrpsrrt wk 5

0.10 (9)

0.01 (17)

80.7 (25)

92.4 (15)

0.06 (10)

0.26 (7)

91.4 (16)

87.9 (18)

0.06 (11)

0.16 (N/A)

87.3 (20)

98.6 (N/A)

0.05 (12)

-0.02 (19)

82.7 (24)

86.5 (19)

0.04 (13)

BYE

97.8 (10)

BYE

0.03 (14)

-0.15 (21)

106.1 (4)

103.7 (9)

0.03 (15)

-0.32 (25)

90.8 (17)

57.6 (25)

0.02 (16)

-0.49 (27)

87.5 (19)

51.6 (26)

Matthew Stafford held the league’s highest Week 5 first-half EPA rate at 0.65 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Not so much in the second half when he posted a -0.48 EPA rate. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback tallied his best passer rating of the season in the Week 5 loss. That’s probably not saying a ton given that it ranks as the 96th-best rating of his career.

The Eagles’ Jalen Hurts continues his upward climb in the EPA ranks after a 0.27 Week 4 outing and 0.26 rate in Week 5. They are his best EPA rates in consecutive weeks since Weeks 8-9 last season. What aided Hurts’ EPA rate rather than his passer rating was his 62.5 percent success rate on potential third-down passing conversions.

The Indianapolis Colts turned to Gardner Minshew again following another injury to rookie Anthony Richardson. It appears Indy will have to ride with Minshew for at least a month with Richardson out and Minshew has already saved the day twice for the Colts in relief duty. In Week 2, Gardner yielded a 0.32 EPA rate and 112.1 passer rating to help beat the Texans. In Week 5, Minshew had a 0.28 EPA rate and 112.8 passer rating to help beat the Tennessee Titans.

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Jimmy Garoppolo did just enough to push the Las Vegas Raiders past the Green Bay Packers in Week 5. His 86.5 passer rating was his second best in four starts in the desert. However, he’s amassed a negative EPA rate in three of his four starts.

Russell Wilson seems like the king of inflated stats. The disparity between where he ranks in overall passer rating and EPA rate is a clear indicator and was again on display in the Denver Broncos’ Week 5 loss to the New York Jets. Wilson produced a similar statistical gap in 2021: 103.5 passer rating (fifth), 0.03 EPA rate (19th).

Joshua Dobbs produced his worst numbers as the Arizona Cardinals’ starter in the Week 5 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. This comes after Dobbs posted EPA rates of 0.32,  0.29 and 0.18 in Weeks 2-4, respectively, and passer ratings of 99.9, 120.0 and 102.2.

You knew the numbers would be ugly for Dak Prescott following the Cowboys’ loss to the 49ers. His -0.49 EPA rate was the third worst of his career. His 51.6 passer rating was his sixth-worst career outing.

Nos. 17-24

playerEPA/DB ovrEPA/DB Wk 5PsrRt ovrpsrrt wk 5

-0.00 (17)

-0.01 (18)

101.7 (7)

92.9 (14)

-0.01 (18)

0.28 (6)

95.1 (13)

112.8 (5)

-0.05 (19)

0.33 (4)

95.4 (12)

125.3 (3)

-0.05 (20)

0.34 (3)

75.8 (30)

78.6 (23)

-0.05 (21)

-0.36 (26)

77.3 (28)

32.2 (27)

-0.06 (22)

-0.31 (24)

93.9 (14)

65.2 (24)

-0.07 (23)

0.02 (16)

86.0 (22)

99.1 (13)

-0.08 (24)

0.03 (15)

86.1 (21)

114.7 (4)

If Wilson is the king of empty stats, the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins could be the prince. (Sorry, Prince.) Unlike Wilson, though, the Vikings have dropped a league-high 13 passes, nine of them occurring in the fourth quarter, and have committed a league-high 12 turnovers including seven by Cousins (four interceptions, three lost fumbles).

Justin Fields produced a 125.3 passer rating in the Chicago Bears’ win vs. Washington, the second highest of his career. Before Week 5, the Bears’ record during Fields’ top eight passer rating performances in his career? Zero wins. Eight losses. Fields’ consecutive EPA rates of 0.20 and 0.33 and passer ratings of 132.7 and 125.3 in Weeks 4-5, respectively, are the best two-game stretches of his career.

Ryan Tannehill’s Week 5 numbers are quite the oddity. And you never really know what’s coming on a weekly basis from the Tennessee Titans quarterback. He’s at least starting to get on the same page with receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

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The Green Bay Packers haven’t made any long-term plans with Jordan Love and that probably won’t change if these troubling trends continue. Here’s a look at the last three weeks for Love:

EPA per dropback

Passer rating

The numbers in Week 5 for Lamar Jackson might take you aback, especially since he tallied a 104.2 overall passer rating through Weeks 1-4, which was the second-best four-game start in his career. But sheesh, someone could’ve helped Jackson out. His pass catchers dropped seven passes in the Baltimore Ravens’ loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s the most dropped passes for any quarterback in a game since Week 6 of the 2021 season when Sam Darnold had eight passes dropped while with the Carolina Panthers.

Sam Howell’s numbers seem okay on the surface in the Week 5 loss to the Bears. But they cover up how poorly he started with a -0.27 EPA rate and 50.5 passer rating in the first half. Howell ended up with the second-best passer rating of his young career.

Derek Carr yielded the best passer rating of his New Orleans Saints tenure (and best overall since Week 7 of last season with the Raiders) in the Week 5 win over the New England Patriots.

Nos. 25-33

playerEPA/DB ovrEPA/DB Wk 5PsrRt ovrpsrrt wk 5

-0.09 (25)

0.11 (11)

91.9 (15)

102.9 (10)

-0.14 (26)

0.19 (10)

78.3 (27)

108.1 (8)

-0.15 (27)

0.20 (9)

85.8 (23)

111.2 (6)

-0.18 (28)

0.05 (13)

77.0 (29)

82.1 (21)

-0.19 (29)

-0.18 (23)

73.4 (32)

78.8 (22)

-0.20 (30)

BYE

87.8 (18)

BYE

-0.20 (31)

0.10 (12)

78.8 (26)

88.5 (17)

-0.23 (32)

-0.17 (22)

71.7 (33)

85.2 (20)

-0.24 (33)

-0.77 (28)

74.2 (31)

30.5 (28)

Trevor Lawrence looked more like the Lawrence from last season in the Jaguars’ win over the Bills. It’s the first time this season he’s posted consecutive weeks with a positive EPA rate. Sunday marked his best EPA rate since Week 18 last season.

Joe Burrow really looked like the Burrow we’ve become accustomed to seeing with the Bengals on Sunday. His EPA rate in the win over the Cardinals was his best since the team’s AFC Divisional win over the Bills last season. His passer rating was his best since Cincinnati’s Week 13 win over the Chiefs last season.

Desmond Ridder showed signs of being a legitimate starting NFL quarterback for the second time this season. The Atlanta Falcons’ passer produced the best EPA rate and second-best passer rating of his young career in the comeback win over the Texans in Week 5.

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Like Howell, Bryce Young’s overall Week 5 numbers may look far better than they actually were. Young posted a -0.13 EPA rate and 47.5 passer rating in the first half of Sunday’s loss to the Lions as two drives ended in interceptions. The good news? Young finished with a positive EPA rate overall for the first time in four NFL starts.

I’m sure the Jets know they can’t win regularly with Zach Wilson’s Week 5 rates. Fortunately, Breece Hall came to the rescue!

The Steelers would probably say the same thing about Kenny Pickett. And it’s wild to think that Pittsburgh is 8-1 when Pickett’s passer rating is between 79.0 and 90.9 in the past two seasons.

And I’d make a joke about keeping up with the Joneses. But that’s been easy through five weeks considering every other qualified quarterback currently ranks ahead of the Giants’ Daniel Jones and the Patriots’ Mac Jones. The Giants can’t really turn away from Daniel Jones given the financial commitment. But the Patriots can with Mac Jones, if they want. Mac Jones yielded the worst EPA rates of his career in two of the last three weeks.

Week 6 defense vs. QB EPA matchups

TeamDefEPA/DBOpp qbEPA/DB ovr

0.34 (1)

Brock Purdy

0.42 (1)

0.18 (2)

Ryan Tannehill

-0.05 (20)

0.15 (3)

Daniel Jones

-0.23 (32)

0.14 (4)

Deshaun Watson

-0.20 (30)

0.13 (5)

C.J. Stroud

0.11 (8)

0.11 (6)

Russell Wilson

0.03 (14)

0.10 (7)

Justin Herbert

0.19 (5)

0.09 (8)

Jared Goff

0.12 (7)

0.06 (9)

Tua Tagovailoa

0.31 (2)

0.05 (10)

BYE

0.05 (11)

BYE

0.04 (12)

Geno Smith

0.04 (13)

0.04 (13)

Jimmy Garoppolo

0.05 (12)

0.03 (14)

Baker Mayfield

0.14 (6)

0.01 (15)

Gardner Minshew

-0.01 (18)

-0.03 (16)

Derek Carr

-0.08 (24)

-0.04 (17)

Trevor Lawrence

-0.09 (25)

-0.05 (18)

Jalen Hurts

0.06 (10)

-0.07 (19)

Zach Wilson

-0.19 (29)

-0.07 (20)

Bryce Young

-0.18 (28)

-0.08 (21)

Sam Howell

-0.07 (23)

-0.08 (22)

Joe Burrow

-0.14 (26)

-0.11 (23)

Mac Jones

-0.24 (33)

-0.13 (24)

Lamar Jackson

-0.06 (22)

-0.13 (25)

Justin Fields

-0.05 (19)

-0.13 (26)

Joshua Dobbs

0.03 (15)

-0.15 (27)

Desmond Ridder

-0.15 (27)

-0.16 (28)

Josh Allen

0.27 (3)

-0.18 (29)

Dak Prescott

0.02 (16)

-0.18 (30)

Matthew Stafford

0.10 (9)

-0.27 (31)

Kirk Cousins

-0.00 (17)

-0.32 (32)

Patrick Mahomes

0.20 (4)

(Photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)

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